Weather Forecast Snow Storm: Where the First Snow Could Fall This Week

A late-week coastal storm is expected to bring rain, gusty wind and possibly the season's first snow to parts of the Northeast from Thursday night, November 12, into Saturday, November 14. The National Weather Service in Boston said Monday that plain rain is favored for the coast and lower elevations, with a possible change to wet snow only in interior higher terrain, while the NWS office in Pittsburgh reported increased confidence in some snow accumulation on higher ground Friday into Saturday.

That first-snow talk is why "weather forecast snow storm" jumped to more than 20,000 Google searches on Monday. Below is what forecasters actually said, city by city, how much snow is realistic, and why the details are still moving. Forecasts change, especially several days out: check your local NWS office at weather.gov before you make plans.

Key Takeaways

• Timing: rain arrives Thursday, with the best snow window late Thursday night through Friday night and some lingering snow showers into Saturday, according to NWS offices and local forecasters.
• Boston: mostly rain and wind. NBC10 Boston says gusts could top 40 mph at times near the coast, and The Boston Globe says Boston itself is not expected to see snow.
• Pittsburgh: NWS Pittsburgh puts the chance of any accumulation in the city at about 20%, with less than a 5% chance of an inch, as reported by the USA TODAY Network.
• Where snow is likeliest: higher terrain, including the West Virginia ridges, Pennsylvania's northern and western mountains, and the hills of interior and northern New England.
• Big uncertainty: computer models still disagree on the storm's track, and the NWS Boston office said Monday that further forecast changes are likely.

The Weather Forecast for This Week's Snow Storm, Explained

This is not a blizzard. It is an autumn coastal storm arriving just as colder air pushes in, which is what gives some places a shot at snow. In its Monday afternoon forecast discussion, the NWS Boston/Norton office described a primary low handing off to a secondary low near the northern mid-Atlantic coast Thursday evening. From there, the computer models split:

• Closer to the coast: the American GFS and Canadian models track the low near southern New England Friday into early Saturday. NWS Boston calls that a stronger, wetter and colder solution that could support a transition to wet snow in interior southern New England.
• Farther offshore: the European model and some AI-based models pass the low well south of Nantucket, which means less precipitation inland.

NWS Boston wrote that there is "still too much uncertainty across the guidance" to pick a favored solution. NBC10 Boston meteorologist Pete Bouchard said the exact track and intensity likely won't be settled until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Timeline: When the Storm Arrives

Day	What forecasters expect
Mon-Wed, Nov 9-11	Mostly dry and mild. NBC10 Boston calls Wednesday the sunniest day of the week, with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Thursday, Nov 12	Rain develops. NWS Pittsburgh says it has high confidence precipitation starts as rain for most of the day there.
Thu night-Fri, Nov 12-13	Main storm window. Possible changeover to snow in western Pennsylvania and higher terrain; rain and wind along the New England coast.
Fri night-Sat, Nov 13-14	Snow possible in New England's higher terrain; lake-enhanced snow showers possible in northwest Pennsylvania. NBC10 Boston expects the storm to wrap up by early Saturday.
Sun-early next week	Cloudy, cool and blustery in southern New England, per NWS Boston, with dry weather favored.

Boston: Rain, Wind and a Low Chance of Snow

If you searched Boston snow, the short answer is that rain is the main story. NWS Boston's key messages Monday said mainly plain rain is favored for the lower elevations and coastal plain, with rain possibly changing to a period of wet snow only in interior higher elevations, and that wintry weather impacts "seem limited."

Local outlets agree:

• The Boston Globe's Ken Mahan wrote that Greater Boston could see about an inch of rain, that the odds of snow accumulating along I-95 and I-495 are very low, and that Boston will not see any snow from this storm. He called it a modest fall storm, not a blockbuster nor'easter.
• NBC10 Boston said rain is expected along the coast for the full duration of the storm, with wind gusts over 40 mph at times, mainly at the coast. Snow could mix in across northern New England on Friday and reach higher terrain in southern New England Friday night or very early Saturday.
• A second NBC10 Boston forecast noted that even if the storm stays offshore, gusty north-northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph and rough surf are still possible along the coast, with weekend highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s.

On the coast, NWS Boston cited Stevens Institute guidance showing a possible 1 to 1.5 foot storm surge on the eastern coast Friday into Friday night, but said coastal flooding seems unlikely, with the possible exception of minor flooding on Nantucket.

Pittsburgh Weather: Rain First, Then a Possible Changeover

For Pittsburgh weather, the setup is a little different. The NWS Pittsburgh forecast discussion issued Monday afternoon said its headline change was "increased confidence in some snow accumulations for higher terrain Friday into Saturday." It expects above-average temperatures midweek before rain arrives Thursday, with a growing signal for a snow changeover in parts of the region late Thursday night or early Friday.

In the city itself, accumulation looks unlikely. The USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania forecast roundup reports that NWS Pittsburgh puts the chance of any accumulation at about 20%, with less than a 5% chance of an inch in the city, and that higher elevations east of the city have a better chance for snow to stick.

NWS Pittsburgh laid out two scenarios for the lowlands:

1. A faster storm on a more southern track would bring little to no snow accumulation for the lowlands, perhaps just a few flakes.
2. A slower storm on a more northern track would give a 25% chance of advisory-level snow in the I-80 counties, with lake-effect snow off Lake Erie adding to totals.

For the West Virginia high terrain, the office said the middle of the forecast range points to marginally advisory-level snow, with about a 10% chance of reaching warning criteria on the ridges in a stronger, overnight scenario. It also cautioned that because the ground has been warm, snow that falls during the day may struggle to accumulate.

Snowfall Forecast: How Much Snow Could Fall?

No forecaster is offering a firm number yet. NBC10 Boston said it is "too early to toss around snowfall amounts," and the USA TODAY Network said it is too early for a dependable statewide snowfall total in Pennsylvania. Here is what the early guidance suggests:

Area	Early snowfall outlook	Source
Interior southern New England hills	20-50% chance of 1 inch or more; under 20% chance of more than 4 inches	NWS Boston
Higher terrain of Western Mass. and northern New England	A coating to 2 inches, with model pockets of 2-4 inches	Boston Globe
Boston and the I-95 corridor	Rain; accumulation odds very low	Boston Globe, NWS Boston
City of Pittsburgh	About 20% chance of any accumulation; under 5% chance of an inch	NWS Pittsburgh via USA TODAY Network
Pennsylvania's northern and western mountains	Measurable snow "highly likely" late Thursday night through Friday night	NWS State College via USA TODAY Network
West Virginia ridges	Marginal advisory-level snow possible	NWS Pittsburgh

NWS Boston added a caution about its own numbers: the probabilities assume a standard 10-to-1 snow-to-liquid ratio, but a wet, "gloppy" snow is more likely, so real accumulations could come in lower.

Snow Weather Forecast for the Rest of Pennsylvania and the Northeast

Beyond Boston and Pittsburgh, the USA TODAY Network roundup summarized several other NWS offices:

• Poconos: NWS Mount Holly says the highest snow probability in its area is along the I-80 corridor.
• Erie: NWS Cleveland says significant accumulation appears unlikely.
• Harrisburg, the Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia: rain should be the main precipitation type.
• Temperatures: NWS State College says temperatures could fall 5 to 15 degrees below normal across Pennsylvania late this week and into the weekend.

In New England, the Globe noted that Boston typically sees its first inch of snow around December 11, so a few November flakes in the hills would be early but not unusual.

Why This Snow Storm Forecast Keeps Changing

A storm three to five days out depends on details models still handle poorly: exactly where the secondary low forms, how fast it moves, and whether it pulls cold air south. A modest shift in the track can be the difference between a cold rain and wet snow in the hills. That is why NWS Boston said "additional forecast adjustments are likely in the coming days" and why NBC10 Boston is waiting until midweek to talk totals.

A few practical tips while the forecast settles:

• Check your local NWS office at weather.gov. Watches, warnings and winter weather advisories are issued there first.
• Watch the elevation. In this storm, a few hundred feet of elevation may matter more than miles on the map.
• Plan for wind, not just snow. NBC10 Boston expects coastal gusts of 30 to 40 mph or more, so secure loose outdoor items.
• Allow extra travel time Friday if you drive through the Appalachian ridges, the I-80 corridor or New England's hill towns.

What to Watch Next

The next key updates should come Tuesday and Wednesday, when forecasters expect better agreement on the storm's track. If the coastal track wins out, expect higher snow chances in interior New England and a better shot at advisories in the hills. If the offshore track wins, much of New England may stay mostly dry apart from wind and surf, while western Pennsylvania still gets lake-effect snow showers into the weekend. Either way, the colder, blustery pattern behind the storm suggests winter is starting to knock on the door across the Northeast.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will it snow in Boston this week?

Probably not in the city. NWS Boston favors mainly rain for the coast and lower elevations, and The Boston Globe says Boston itself is not expected to see snow, though wet snow is possible in interior hills Friday into Saturday.

Will it snow in Pittsburgh this week?

Snow is possible late Thursday night into the weekend, but accumulation in the city looks unlikely. NWS Pittsburgh puts the chance of any accumulation at about 20%, and less than 5% for an inch, according to the USA TODAY Network.

When does the snow storm start?

Rain is expected to begin Thursday, November 12. The main window for snow in higher terrain is late Thursday night through Friday night, with lingering snow showers possible Saturday.

How much snow will fall?

Forecasters have not issued firm totals. Early NWS Boston guidance shows a 20-50% chance of an inch or more in interior hills, and the Globe cites model pockets of 2 to 4 inches in higher terrain of northern and western New England.

Where can I get the most accurate snowfall forecast?

Your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov issues official forecasts, watches and advisories. Forecasts for this storm are expected to change, so check back as it gets closer.

Sources

• Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA (Nov. 9, 2026) (National Weather Service)
• Area Forecast Discussion, National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA (Nov. 9, 2026) (National Weather Service)
• New England nor'easter forecast: Snow inland, rain in Boston (The Boston Globe)
• Calm, cloudy weather starts the week before a nor'easter arrives (NBC10 Boston)
• Is this season's 1st snow headed to Boston area? What we know about looming storm (NBC10 Boston)
• PA weather forecast: When will it snow this weekend? (USA TODAY Network (Bucks County Courier Times, via AOL))